Hinu Iranian i runga i te mākete. Ko te kounga o te hinu Iranian. Hea Iran kaiwhakawhiwhi te hinu

Tangohanga o aukati ao ki Iran, tāpiri tetahi puna o supply o waiwaro, he tino iti kē te utu o nei. mākete hinu Iranian taea tikanga hoki ia, me te kamupene hinu ao, me te motu mahi i roto i te Middle Te Tai Rāwhiti?

pea o Iran

1976 Ko te tau pai mō te ahumahi hinu te whenua o. Oil Iranian stably kawea i roto i te nui o 6 miriona oko, ia ra, a i roto i Noema te taua tau, tae te ahua he tuatahi 6.68 miriona. I te wa, anake Hauti Arapia, te Soviet Union me te United States i kaiwhakanao nui.

Revolution aru Na, me mo te 35 nga tau kua hipa, i te hinu Iran kore tangohia i roto i te i te taikaha o te rua-hautoru o te tihi o te waenganui-70 (ahakoa i takaro te tūranga matua i te hau), ahakoa te meka e nga rahui o te koura pango i roto i te whenua i runga i te 15 tau whakamutunga nui haere e tata 70% - he nui ki runga ake i ona hoa i runga i te wā kotahi.

Otiia, ko te wheako o 1970 tau tonu he faahaamana'oraa puai o te mea e taea e te ahumahi hinu o Iran i muri i te aranga ki o aukati.

mehua whai hua

aukati United States e whakaritea te Pākehā Union me te Kotahitanga o runga i te whenua mai i 2011, i meinga he whakaiti nui i roto i te hanga te hinu i roto i Iran. kihai i ratou taea ki te kati rawa te hokohoko ao, pera me etahi o nga kiritaki matua - China, India, Japan, South Korea ko Turkey - tonu ki te hoko pukapuka nui o te hinu Iranian.

Otiia, kua te pānga o te aukati kua nui. I roto i ngā, here nui i runga i hangarau kawemai kua arahina ki te ino o te kāwanatanga hangarau o te hanga whakaurunga, i heke hoki te kounga o te hinu Iranian. I tua atu, i te whakarahi o te kanga EU i inihua waka kura whakaritea here nui i runga i te pūmanawa kaweake o te whenua, kia rite ki neke atu i te 90% o te ao inihua waka kura kaipuke whakaritea e te ture Pākehā.

Ko te hua mutunga ko te whakaiti nui i roto i te hanga o waiwaro, te nuinga e tika ana ki tūnga mau hooraa ki te mate katoa o te 18 ki te 20% o te putanga pea mai te whakataki o aukati i 2011. Aukati i Iranian production tapahia hinu e 0.8 miriona b / d - kei te inaianei hoki mai i te maha o nei ki te mākete.

Hea kua kite i te hinu Iranian te kaihoko?

I muri i te tango i te here i roto i Hānuere, rite ki te whika e pā ana, hokona Iran wha waka kura (4 miriona oko,) i roto i Europe, tae atu Wīwī Tapeke, Pāniora, a Russian Cepsa Litasco. He ōrite ki te noa e pā ana ki te 5 ra o hoko i te taumata o runga ki te 2012, ka tukuna kiritaki Pākehā i 800 mano. etahi oko ia ra tenei. He maha kiritaki nui mua, tae atu Anglo-Dutch o Shell, a eni Italian, Kariki Hellenic Petroleum me te whare hokohoko Vitol, Glencore ko Trafigura, haere anake ki te tīmata anō ngā mahi. Ko te ngaro o ngā whakataunga tāra me te huarahi whakapumautia o hoko i roto i te tahi atu moni, rite pai rite te hiahia o pareparenga ki te whakarato pukapuka o nama ko nga tutukitanga matua i muri i te aranga ki o aukati.

I te wa ano, ki etahi kaihoko nui hinaaro ore mua o Tehran mamatanga ona tikanga o te hoko wha tau ki muri, me te ki kia atu ngāwari i roto i utu, ahakoa te taikaha o te supply i runga i te hiahiatanga me te rahi o te ärai o Hauti Arapia Iran mākete Pākehā, Russia me Iraq.

Tuhinga mō te 2016

Ki te rā tata o te toronga o aukati te mākete ao hanga o te hinu i te hokinga whakamuri bearish, i hinga utu e 25% i roto i te wā i Pipiri ki August 2015. I te wa ano te NYMEX, tohu tonu ananahi ki to ratou ora ngohengohe, me te tahi mau pokapū ao tohu i roto i Hōngongoi ko August 2015 ähuareka ratou i a tawhio noa $ 45-65 ia oko, rite te awhe utu i roto i te wā i Hānuere ki Hōngongoi 2015

Ko te ahunga whakamua o te nekehanga mākete hinu nuinga tei runga i te nui o me pehea hohoro ka whakanui i te kaweake o hinu Iranian i muri i te aranga ki o aukati. E rua ngā whakaaro taketake i runga i tenei hua pea.

I runga i te ringa kotahi, kia rite ki te International Energy Agency (Eia), kua Iran te pea ki te whakapiki ake i hanga kaha o e pā ana ki 800 mano. Etahi oko ia ra, te rua ki Hauti Arapia anake. I te tahi atu te ringa, i rite ki nga matapae Eia, i muri i te toronga o aukati i te tīmatanga o 2016 i te supply o hinu faufau Iranian ia tau i runga i toharite ki te whakapiki ake i te taha 300 mano. Etahi oko ia ra.

Ko te take matua mō te taua tata kaperuatia takoto i roto i te meka e te muri homai nui taimaha ki te pānga o te maha nga tau o here i runga i te ino o te hanganga maina o te Islamic Republic, e hiahia inaianei etahi wa ki te rōnaki ake production. I roto i te mutunga, i te waenganui o te 2012 e tika ana ki tūnga hia āta timata hinu Iranian ki te kia hua i iti iho i te e 600-800 mano. Etahi oko ia ra.

Kia pehea te hāngai Ko enei whakatau tata o te hanga mo te mākete hou o te koura pango ao? He hua o 800 mano. Etahi oko ia ra ko e pā ana ki te 1% o te katoa kai hinu te ao o teie mahana, e ai kia nui mō huringa ohorere i roto i te uara o te taiao whakataetae, engari e kore e hoki te Tuhinga mākete. Ētahi atu āta, i roto i te utu waiwaro wā-waenga, me te roa, rite ki te tikanga, ahu ki te whakaōrite ki te utu hanga o te oko whakamutunga o tono makona. inhibits hinu iti-utu wā-roa haumi i roto i te whanaketanga o ngā putunga atu te utu; i roto i te mutunga, pai katia, ka heke te supply te. Ki te ara te utu i runga i te rohe, kawea haumi hou atu, puna atu utu o waiwaro.

I roto i tenei horopaki, i roto i te pā ana ki faahitiraa hinu hūnuku i roto i 2014, mākete o tenei ra, ko te uara ānau iti tairongo (mai i te whanaketanga tino utu e pai kē). Ko te kupu, ka waiho he puna iti o kai iti rawa iho mana i runga i te utu atu i roto i ngā taiao pakeke waenganui 2014.

Ka rite ki te hua, kōrero te tauira mākete hinu e kia e taea ki te whakapiki ake i hanga e te atu 800 mano. Etahi oko ia ra i roto i te 2016 Iran. Quotes o Brent i 2016 he pea ki ki hei i roto i te whānuitanga o $ 45-65 ia oko, i te mea rite ki te kauhanga utu tonu, kua tīmata kua hoki 2015.

Eaha te tupu i roto i 3-5 tau?

I roto i te wā roa, Heoi, kia atu tino te pānga o te hokinga mai o Iran. Neke atu i te nga tau torutoru mua kua ite matou i te poipoi o ngā āhuatanga hou, ko te nui ki runga ake i te taumata toharite i roto i te Middle Te Tai Rāwhiti. taea ki te whakamahi i tino enei rahui no te mea o iti uru ki te rere waho o te hangarau, me te tohungatanga ki te whenua, ko te. Ka rite ki te hua, ka hinga kore anake hinu faufau, engari ano hoki ki te whakamatau ko te taumata o rahui te rawa i roto i te aamu i te whenua o. I te wa ano, kihai i ano tae nga taumata o production nāianei te taumata o te kapinga o te whakapaunga tūmatanui.

Tenei, i honoa e ki te meka e Iran (pērā Kuwait, Hauti Arapia me te UAE) e kore e whai pūtea haumi rawaka ki utu mo te tarepa pūtea. tikanga o tēnei e ka kia kaweake hinu o Iran ki neke atu i te e, i roto i te tahuri, ka whakawhirinaki i runga i te kaha o te kāwanatanga ki te whakamahi i te tika hangarau me te wheako.

Ko hoki te anga ture o te Islamic Republic he raruraru nui mō te kamupene ke hiahia ki te haumi moni, me te mohio-pehea i roto i te rāngai pūngao o te whenua. kaupapa ture o Iran opani mana ke tūmataiti ranei o ngā rauemi māori, me te whakaaetanga tiritiri production rāhuitia e te ture. E anake whakaaetia MNCs me ētahi atu pūtea ke ki te whai wāhi i roto i te tūhura, me te hanga kirimana i roto i te hoko tuarua mai. Enei kirimana, i roto i te meka, ōrite ki kirimana mo te whakarato o ngā ratonga, e taea ai pūtea ke tūhura me te whakawhanake i ngā āpure pūwaro, ngā e muri tīmatanga production, mana hoki te National Iranian Oil Company tetahi o ona kamupene nō e taea te hoko i te tika mo ranei he utu tomu'a. I roto i te 2014, kua kauwhautia te Tāhuhu o te hinu o Iran mahere ki te whakauru i te pera-ka karanga kirimana kotahi hinu (te IPC), e mahi rite kaupapa tahi PSA ranei ki te roanga pea o te 20 ki te 25 tau (e rua rite te roa rite te roanga o kirimana hoko tuarua mai). Ki te ka whakaaetia tenei momo hou o whakaaetanga i te ture, painga te whenua o rite te ūnga haumi mō MNCs me ētahi atu kaitākaro te ao e tupu tino a ka whakatere i te whanaketanga o rāhui pūwaro.

Tuhinga hoki haumi whakapaipai

E ai ki etahi whakatau tata, kia whakapiki ake i haumi hou tūhura hinu me te production i roto i Iran e 6% ia tau i runga i te rima tau e haere ake nei (e te mea rite ki te pāpātanga o te tupu i roto i Iraq i runga i te tau torutoru mua), whakaritea ki te pea, 1.4% hua i roto i te hanga i te hinu i roto i Middle Te Tai Rāwhiti i roto i te whānui. I roto i tenei tauari, mana'o e tono ka noho te taua, kia rerekē te utu o te hinu i waenganui i $ 60-80 ia oko i roto i 2020, i roto i te ngaro o enei ngā, te rite atu mea, ka taea e te utu e 10-15% runga ake.

I roto i tenei awhe utu, te haumi i roto i te putunga ki utu teitei, pērā i tokauku, te hōanga papa ranei, e pea ki te hoki ki ngā taumata i mua i 2014. Ahakoa kia tonu hanga hoki rite te roa rite e iti nui ki te whakatika i te utu nga utu hinu production , ka whakaiti rohirohi tere o taua puna ratou uara (puna tokauku, i roto i ngā, rite ki te tikanga, e hoatu 80% neke atu rānei i roto i te tau tuatahi 3-5). I roto i enei tikanga, ka patua te tukua o te hinu Iranian ki te mākete pukapuka atu te keri tokauku i roto i te United States, a he iti iti i runga i ngā āpure tai i roto i Te Tai Tokerau me Amerika ki te Tonga, Asia, Awherika, me te Far Te Tai Rāwhiti o Russia. He rohirohi tere o putunga Moana Te Tai Tokerau ka arahi ki to ratou whakakapinga e nui haere production i roto i Iran me pea i roto i ētahi atu whenua, pērā i Iraq ko Ripia.

hinu Iranian, ko Russia

kounga Poor o Russian kōeke hinu mo Urals, tukua i roto i Eastern Europe, he tipu āwangawanga o kiritaki, e arata'i te reira ki te moni o tona tukatuka me te parekura pūtea hinga. Ko te kupu, ko te ihirangi whanariki i roto i te tukua i roto i awakeri "Druzhba" me i roto i te terminals i Primorsk me te hinu UST-lug nui 1.5%, ka nui haere ona kiato te ki 31⁰ API. e kore tenei hāngai whakatakotoranga o Platt rite ki e kore e te ihirangi whanariki e neke atu i te 1.3%, me te kiato tohu - i te iti rawa 32⁰.

Ki te ino atu o nga kiritaki rauemi raw Russian i roto i Europe ka hoatu hiahia ki ētahi atu akomanga - Kirkuk ko Basrah Light ko Iran Light. Ko rite ki te paerewa Urals te kounga o te hinu Iranian Iran Light. Ko te kiato o te tohu - e kore e 33,1 ° API, me te ihirangi whanariki nui 1.5%.

Tango i aukati ki te titauraa Islamic Republic i te kamupene hinu ao, me te motu i roto i te rohe arotake i tā rātou mahere rautaki, me te tango ki te pūkete te mau tamataraa, me ngā whai wāhitanga e whai ake wheako.

haumi ke

hinu Iranian i runga i te mākete ao oroko ake te whānuitanga o ngā whai wāhitanga pea mo MNCs me ētahi atu pūtea ke ngā, rawa ki te whakaae o kirimana hou IPC. I muri e rave rahi tau o iti uru ki te hangarau waho, me te wheako o te ahumahi keri Iranian ka hiahia āwhina waho, me te āhua o ngā pūtea te whenua o fokotuu e ki tona painga ki te tango mau haafifiraa katoa ki hohoro te tiki i tenei awhina.

I tua atu, i te ka te hanga i roto i te wahi tuatahi, i taea e te āhuatanga rite tupu ki transportation (pipelines ki kaweake whakanui ake pukapuka o production), matū (hau me te matū hangai ki te whakaputa i olefins mō te kaweake), me te tukatuka (mo te whakakapinga o te taputapu mō te hinu para e kore e taua ake i roto i te wa o aukati).

I mua marutuna here, kua Iran kua he haria nui o te hinu, na ko reira inaianei taea ki te whakawhānui i te āheinga para ki te whakatau ia tono rohe, tetahi wahi e tika ana ki te auau utu iti o te OMANI, e whakatairanga kawemai whakauru.

Kei te tipu haere Production i Iran ko Iraq, me te stabilization o te āhuatanga tōrangapū, kua whakaritea te reira ki te whakapiki ake i roto i Ripia, i te mea pea ki te whakakaha me te whakawhānui i te tauira e hakari o te hinu cheap. He maha ngā rautaki e ka faaiti i te pānga o te NOC.

Exploration me te Production

Whai wāhitanga ki te whakaiti i ngā utu, me te whakapiki ake i te kakama, i roto i ngā hāngai ana ki ngā ratonga oilfield, kaikirimana me ētahi atu utu waho, kua te whenua. I te utu iti mō te waiwaro haumi ao i roto i te tūhura, me te hanga o te putunga nui-utu pōturi iho i roto i ngā kamupene mahi i reira ko te taikaha o te hanga raukaha, me he nui atu tuwhera ki whakahou ratou reiti whakararo ratou. I tua atu, ka, kua hoko nei taonga matua pērā i ore rino i ngā heke hītori, he whakaiti nui i roto i te utu e taea te tutuki ki te whakahaere rauemi. Hoki te Middle Te Tai Rāwhiti NOCs e he cheap nui ki te whakatika haumi tonu, e arotahi ana ki te whakapai ake o te supply tonu rakau ko te whai wāhitanga tūturu ki tino whakaiti i ngā utu, kahore kukume haumi tūturu.

tukatuka

hoki te tikanga ngāwari rauemi raw utu iti o ona hua. Mai te nuinga o te wā tukua te hau rauemi raw atu rohe, ia faatanohia te utu o ngā hua hinu te ki utu hinu masivesivá.

Tenei te tikanga e i roto i te tono hinga hoki ngā hua, he mea parakore faahitiraa heke tere atu i te hau. I te wa ano, ki te ka Iran tomo te mākete ki te atu tipu hau hangai, e he ngāwari ngā ki te hoatu i runga i awa ki te pato ki te tipu production hau, ka whai te reira i te pēhanga utu nui. Ko e mo'oni, hoatu e kore e te whenua kaweake whakaurunga LNG (a kia tango ai tau mo tona hanganga), ki te taea whai pai i e heke te hau toenga te hanganga o pipelines hou ranei (hei tauira, pērā e hono i tenei ra Turkey, Armenia me Azerbaijan) ki te hau tukatuka ranei. Kei te kua kaha te whakamahi i Iran te kōwhiringa muri, i i te wa taua whakamahere hoki ki te atu pipelines te whakatau i te hiahia i roto i te rauemi raw o ngā tipu matūngahinu hou i roto i te uru o te whenua. Hei tauira, hanga o 1,500 km Te Hau-ā-uru ethylenically he putorino i roto i te wā whakamutunga. He pea ki te hanga i te Islamic Republic i te kaiwhakanao ki te mau faahitiraa parau i raro o olefins marama tenei, ngā ki te utu iti o te tāuta Iranian.

Reira te tikanga hoki e te utu ngā o ngā hua hinu ka whakawhānui i te whakamahi o te papatanga catalytic. hoki o Iran ki te mākete e rapu whakahounga o te moni whanaunga o ngā hua i runga i te pūtake o waiwaro, me te hau whakaputa whenua o te Persian Gulf taea tae te moni whakatairite o te hau kaweake i te puka o LNG whakaritea ki tona tukatuka o olefins.

Just pehea cheap he pai mō te hangai hautanga, he pai hoki kaimahi koura cheap hinu Iranian masivesivá i runga i te mākete. Tenei ka arahi ki atu whai wāhitanga haumi i roto i te Gulf - kua mahi te maha kaupapa ki te whakapiki ake i te kaha (hāunga roha te awa, e taea te tango i te wahi i roto i Iran). I roto i te āhuatanga i reira te i roto i IOCs fifi pūtea me kamupene motuhake i roto i he vēkeveke ki te pehea e ratou ake rawa production atu wahi o te ao, ka te Middle Te Tai Rāwhiti NOCs he tupono hoki hanumi ātaahua me te hopu.

Tango i aukati ki te Islamic Republic me te hua e hāngai ana i roto i te supply o waiwaro arata'i ki te mutunga i te ao, ko te rite i roto i te 1980, kei te i te timatanga o te hinu wā pea roa o utu iti. tirohanga Iranian fafau wero hou, me te whai wāhitanga, me no te reira ki te hunga hohoro a whai hua nei takoto i te rerekē i roto i o ratou mahere rautaki.