Ture o Okun. a Okun whakarea: definition, tātai

Hoki te tātaritanga o te āhuatanga ōhanga maha whakamahi ture o Okun. Ōwehenga, i i whakarewahia pūtaiao, whakaahua ana te hononga i waenganui i te kore mahi me te tupu. I whakatuwheratia te reira i runga i te pūtake o ngā raraunga tëtehi i 1962, te pūtaiao, i roto i tona honore, a ka huaina. whakaatu tatauranga e te hua i roto i te kore mahi i te 1% arata'i ki te hekenga i roto i te GDP tūturu i pea 2%. Heoi, e kore te mea tamau tenei ōwehenga. Ka taea e rerekē te reira i te kāwanatanga me te wā wa i runga i te āhua. Ko te ōwehenga i waenganui i te huringa toru marama i roto i te auau kore mahi me te GDP tūturu - ko tenei ture o Okun. Te tātai, kia tuhia te reira, e whakahē tonu. Na ui ona whai ki te whakamārama i ngā āhuatanga mākete.

Ture o Okun

puta Factor me te ture ki muri ki reira rite ki te hua o te tukatuka raraunga tauanga, e ko, ngā kitenga tëtehi. Kei te hāngai te reira i kore takoto te ariā taketake, na te i whakamatauria i roto i te mahi. kite Arthur Melvin Ouken tauira, ako nga tatauranga o te United States. Ko reira āwhiwhiwhi. Ko e tika ana ki te meka i awe te hua motu matotoru e āhuatanga maha, e kore noa te auau kore mahi tenei. Heoi, he taua tātaritanga māmā te hononga i waenganui i te mahi macroeconomic ko ētahi wā ano hoki whai hua rite rangahau whakaatu Okun. Tau whakarea outputted pūtaiao whakaaturanga fakafalala inversely hautanga i waenganui i putanga me te kore mahi. whakapono Ouken e te hua i roto i te hua motu matotoru i 2% tika ki te huri e whai ake nei:

• maturuturu i roto i te taumata o te kore mahi taiāwhio i te 1%;
• whakapiki i te mahi o 0.5%;
• te whakanui ake i te maha o ngā hāora mahi mo ia kaimahi ki te 0.5%;
• tupu hua o 1%.

Ko te kupu, te whakaiti i te taumata o huringa Okun kore mahi 0.1%, ka taea e tatou e ti'aturi i te hua i roto i te GDP tūturu 0.2%. Heoi, rerekē tenei ōwehenga mo nga whenua rerekē me wā wā. Fakafalala i whakamatauria kua i roto i te mahi mo te rua GDP ko GNP. tata Martin Prachovni, te heke i roto i te hanga i te 3% tika ki te hekenga i roto i kore mahi i te 1%. Heoi, e whakapono ana ia e he anake he hononga autaki tenei. E ai ki a Prachovni i production pānga kore ake kore mahi, me ētahi atu āhuatanga pērā i te kaha whakamahi me te maha o ngā hāora mahi. reira i te mea e tika ana ki te paopao ratou. Prachovni tātai e iti haere kore mahi 1% ahu ana ki te hua o GDP 0.7 anake%. riro te fakafalala ngoikore i runga i te wā. I roto i te 2005, he tātaritanga o ngā tatauranga tata whakahaere Endryu Apera ko Ben Bernanke. tata ratou e te hua i roto i te kore mahi i te 1% arata'i ki te maturuturunga iho i roto i te hanga i te 2%.

take

Ko te aha auau tipu GDP runga ake i te huringa ōrau i roto i te auau kore mahi? Ko taea ki te hoatu e rave rahi whakamārama:

• Ko te mahi o te pānga whakarea. mahi te atu iwi, te nui te hiahia mō ngā taonga. Na reira, ka taea e production tupu i te tere tere atu i te taumata mahi.
• tatauranga ta'ehaohaoá. kia mutu noa tangata kore mahi rapu mō mahi. Ki te tupu tenei, ka ngaro ratou i te "hihiani" o pokapū tauanga.
• Ano, Ka taea e te mau taata mau-mahi tīmata te mahi iti. I roto i te tatauranga, he reira tata kore kitea. Heoi, i tenei āhuatanga ko te nui pānga i runga i te hanga. Na reira, me te taua maha o ngā kaimahi, e taea te mau tiki tatou tohu rerekē hua motu matotoru.
• Ko te hekenga i roto i te mahi hua. Tenei kia tika ki te ino o te whakahaere e kore e anake, engari ano hoki ki te maha rawa o ngā kaimahi.

Ture o Okun: te tātai

whakamōhio tatou i te momotuhi e whai ake nei:

• Y - te tino putanga.
• Y '- pea hua motu matotoru.
• u - kore mahi tūturu.
• u '- te taumata tūturu o te ahua o mua.
• c - Okun whakarea.

Ka mau ia ki pūkete te momotuhi runga ake, ka taea e tetahi ahu te tātai e whai ake nei: (Y '- Y) / Y' = he * (u - u ').

I roto i te US, mai 1955, ko te tikanga te ahua muri i 2 3 ranei, e whakaaturia e te akoranga wheako i runga ake-whakahuatia. Heoi, kei te uaua whakamahia tenei putanga o te ture a Okun no te mea he tino uaua ki te arotake i nga taumata pea o kore mahi, me te hua motu matotoru. Tera atu ano tetahi putanga o te tātai.

Me pēhea te ki te tātai GDP

Ki te tātai i te tere o te tupu GDP, whakamōhio tatou o ngā pū e whai ake nei:

• Y - te nui tūturu o te take.
• Δu - huringa i roto i te taumata tūturu o te kore mahi i roto i te rite ki te tau o mua.
• C - Okun whakarea.
• ΔY - te huri i te putanga tūturu whakaritea ki te tau o mua.
• K - toharite te tupu production ā-tau i te mahi tonu.

Mā te whakamahi i te momotuhi o te raraunga taea ahu te whārite e whai ake nei: ΔY / Y = k - c * Δu.

He rite ki te 2 me te K hoki te wā hou i roto i US whakarea hītori C - 3%. Ko te kupu, he whārite: ΔY / Y = 0,03 - 2Δu.

te whakamahi o

E mohio ana pehea ki te tātai i te tau whakarea Okun, maha tauturu te reira i roto i te whare ngā. E mea pinepine, Heoi, e kore te mea tika rawa te tau hua. Ko e tika ana ki te whakarea o te rerekētanga puta noa whenua me wā wā tenei. Na reira, me tango tatou ki pūkete te matapae hua o te tupu GDP mā te hanga mahi ki te tetahi tohu o te māna. Ano, he tika atu ngā wā-poto. Ko e tika ana ki te meka e i tetahi auau taea huringa circumstantial pā tenei.

i roto i te mahi

Me kī e te auau kore mahi, ko te 10%, me te hua motu matotoru tūturu - milliardov wae moni 7500.
E ti'a ia tatou ki te kitea te nui o te GDP e taea te hanga ki te te taumata o te kore mahi e hāngai ana ki te tohu tūturu (6%). Kei te ngāwari tenei raruraru faatiti'aifarohia na roto i te te whakamahi i te ture o Okun. Ratio tohu e te taumata tūturu o te taikaha i runga i te taiao kore mahi 1% arata'i ki te mate o te 2% o GDP. Na tuatahi e hiahia ana tatou ki te kitea te rerekētanga i waenganui i te 10%, me te 6%. Ko te kupu, ko te rerekētanga i waenganui i te auau kore mahi tūturu me te taiao, ko te 4%. I muri i taua he ngāwari ki te matau e te GDP i te raruraru i muri i tona uara pea e 8%. Na tango tatou i te hua motu matotoru tūturu 100%. I tua atu, e taea te faaoti i te reira e 108% o te GDP tūturu o 7500 * 1.08 = 8.1 trillion moni. kia mohio ki te reira e tenei tauira, ko te anake he tauira o te akoranga o te ōhanga. I roto i te vairaa mau, kia kia tino rerekē te āhuatanga. Na reira, he tika anake hoki matakite wā-poto, te wahi i reira he kahore he take mo te inenga tino pau ture o te whakamahi Okun.